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We modeled this win rate, a percentage between 0% and 100% (though generally between 35% and 70%), as a linear function of mana cost (the cost of a card in-game), and rarity (how rare it is to see the card in draft)

Let us consider the more recent Standard formats: Zendikar-Scars of Mirrodin Standard (after the [card]Jace, the Mind Sculptor[/card] and [card]Stoneforge Mystic[/card] bannings): [deck title=U/R Twin by Anders Simpson Wolf] [Creatures] *4 Deceiver Exarch [/Creatures] [Spells] *4 Shrine of Piercing Vision *4 Splinter Twin *2 Dismember *4 Dispel *2 Into the Roil *2 Mana Leak *2 Mental Misstep *1 Twisted Image *4 Gitaxian Probe *4 Ponder *4 Preordain [/Spells] [Lands] *8 Island *5 Mountain *2 Arid Mesa *2 Halimar Depths *2 Misty Rainforest *4 Scalding Tarn [/Lands] [Sideboard] *2 Spellskite *2 Azure Mage *3 Grim Lavamancer *1 Mental Misstep *2 Mutagenic Growth *2 Negate *1 Shatter *2 Pyroclasm [/Sideboard] [/deck] This is the last time that Standard saw a viable two-card combo deck, and astute readers can see why

This is Commander

Evolving Archenemy Three unlikely heroes